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I don't think it matters what the number of reservations are or were. Ultimately Tesla will have to sell enough Model 3's at a high enough price to turn a profit. If the transaction price is high enough the number sold can be smaller. IOW the margin -- basically the sales price --
will be more important than unit sales.

In any event, going after the BMW 3 series is daring.
 

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I don't think it matters what the number of reservations are or were. Ultimately Tesla will have to sell enough Model 3's at a high enough price to turn a profit. If the transaction price is high enough the number sold can be smaller. IOW the margin -- basically the sales price --
will be more important than unit sales.

In any event, going after the BMW 3 series is daring.
After driving a BMW 3 series I don't think the bar is that high in reality. The perception is far higher than the reality.
 

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So the 500k reservations figure Elon tossed out last Friday may not have been a current number, but rather total reservations received to date for the Model 3, not counting any cancellations.
Man, the pool of reservation holders that may "Bolt" could be way smaller than I thought! I wonder if they even have the 373k they announced last year?

http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1111852_teslas-wont-discuss-net-model-3-reservations-number-why
More everyday per current news.

"Tesla announced that they are “averaging over 1,800 net Model 3 reservations per day” since the handover event and stated that the they have opened up the design configurator to thousands of employees as they prepare to produce more Model 3s. Tesla started deliveries of the Model 3 last Friday.'
 

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Reservation numbers are just that a reservation...Tesla needs to convert them to sales...and they need to do it in a rapid fashion...before other vehicles appear to change the reservations to cancellations...since American's have a rather short attention span...:)
 

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Elon said he "mis-spoke" and 500k was total reservations to date not factoring cancellations.
Counting cancellations, actual current count is 450k. So about a 75k increase over the past year.
 

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I think the pricing, specs, and delivery date of the BMW 3 Series EV that will be unveiled in September will have more of an effect on Model 3 reservations than anything else. If people are way down on the waiting list, it might make sense to transition. BMW knows how to make a competent EV, and they will be eligible for the $7,500 incentive long after Tesla has exhausted theirs.
 

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So the 500k reservations figure Elon tossed out last Friday may not have been a current number, but rather total reservations received to date for the Model 3, not counting any cancellations.
Man, the pool of reservation holders that may "Bolt" could be way smaller than I thought! I wonder if they even have the 373k they announced last year?

http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1111852_teslas-wont-discuss-net-model-3-reservations-number-why
Didn't you say there was maybe 350,000 so the pool of reservation holders was way bigger than your estimation but then again you were only off by about 100,000.
 

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I think the core of the Green Car Reports article is still valid: Tesla isn't being completely upfront. Not that it is hurting their stock prices, but withholding information from analysts and investors almost always causes them to assume the worst. I could say Tesla was down to 200,000 Model 3 reservations, and without more information from Tesla, my number is just as valid as the 500,000 that was stated.

Most people look at Tesla as a company that needs to finish growing up. The Model 3 development, manufacturing, and deliveries is one aspect of that. Being upfront with analysts and investors is another. They can still play the darling card for a little while longer, but pretty soon, people will stop tolerating obfuscated data and analytics.*

*Disclaimer: For those who are triggered, I say this because I want to see Tesla succeed. They really do need to change some aspects of the way they do business.
 

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I think the core of the Green Car Reports article is still valid: Tesla isn't being completely upfront. Not that it is hurting their stock prices, but withholding information from analysts and investors almost always causes them to assume the worst. I could say Tesla was down to 200,000 Model 3 reservations, and without more information from Tesla, my number is just as valid as the 500,000 that was stated.

Most people look at Tesla as a company that needs to finish growing up. The Model 3 development, manufacturing, and deliveries is one aspect of that. Being upfront with analysts and investors is another. They can still play the darling card for a little while longer, but pretty soon, people will stop tolerating obfuscated data and analytics.*

*Disclaimer: For those who are triggered, I say this because I want to see Tesla succeed. They really do need to change some aspects of the way they do business.
He gave you the actual number. How do you need more information?
 

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Discussion Starter #12 (Edited)

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Aaaand Tesla burned through a record $1.6 billion dollars in cash last quarter. http://www.autonews.com/article/201...sh-burn-condoned-as-musk-focuses-on-ev-vision
I get a chuckle out of that. The talking heads at FBN are reporting that the stock price went up because the burn rate was lower than the $1.8B expected and revenues were up. It's like "Oh, the ship isn't sinking as fast as we thought. Let's bring on more passengers."

I understand Amazon did similar things in the past. I guess I just don't appreciate the nuances of continually running in the red. Something about the dotcom bubble has me thinking more narrowly.

Some are predicting another round of debt and equity selling coming very soon.
 

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63,000 cancellations as of yesterday. Interesting to see if the "1,800 net per day" reservation rate continues. Doubtful, since Tesla continues to anti-sell the 3.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tens-thousands-people-canceled-tesla-052159896.html

Aaaand Tesla burned through a record $1.6 billion dollars in cash last quarter. http://www.autonews.com/article/201...sh-burn-condoned-as-musk-focuses-on-ev-vision
Yep with another 160,000 added during the same time 63,000 cancelled with 1,800 more orders coming in daily.

Sometime you have to pay to play.

The fact that Tesla is building the LARGEST FACTORY IN THE WORLD TO MANUFACTURE BATTERIES actually costs money. Then they also have the largest production facilities in the western hemisphere to ramp up production to 500,000 a year.

It costs money and when the model 3 starts selling in large numbers with the gigafactory in full production the money will start pouring in.

I also wouldn't want to cast stones as the cars that we are driving came from a place that was so mismanaged that they had to file bankruptcy costing the taxpayers 16.6 BILLION dollars. So until Tesla mismanages even a quarter of that I would think you wouldn't be so cocky. Then again your hate runs deep so I wouldn't count on it.
 

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He gave you the actual number. How do you need more information?
63,000 cancellations as of yesterday. Interesting to see if the "1,800 net per day" reservation rate continues. Doubtful, since Tesla continues to anti-sell the 3.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tens-thousands-people-canceled-tesla-052159896.html

Aaaand Tesla burned through a record $1.6 billion dollars in cash last quarter. http://www.autonews.com/article/201...sh-burn-condoned-as-musk-focuses-on-ev-vision
Thanks, Brian. I was waiting for the "actual number." Now we have it.
 

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