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3 Graphs that Show that the Chevy Volt is a Big Success in 2011

5991 Views 11 Replies 9 Participants Last post by  frankydude
I have a new Blog Post that I hope will interest this Forum (3 Graphs that Show that the Chevy Volt is a Big Success in 2011):

http://www.bobbleheadguru.com

The text of the blog post is below. The graphics are shown in the blog itself.

I would appreciate it if you could review and let me know if I missed anything.

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Blog Post Text
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You may think that the headline is crazy... compared to the Dismal-Failure-On-Par-With-New-Coke-and-Edsel headlines that I project will be out there soon.


However, I have some facts to back this headline up. Please let me know what you think of this analysis.


1. GM Beat their 2011 Number by 45%

Chevy estimated they would produce 10,000 Volt back in March. They produced 14,510. They produced 45.1% more than their estimate. Here is the graph:


The estimate is clearly articulated in March 2011 press release (see last paragraph):
http://media.gm.com/content/media/u...nt/Pages/news/us/en/2011/Mar/0304_VoltPricing

Note that the press release states PRODUCED not SALES. Many in the media are using Sales and then stating that GM did not meet their goal. I could not find any press release in which GM stated they would SELL 10,000 Volts in 2011. If someone has such a press release, please let me know.


2. GM is now the #1 EV car in sales in the US. It has held the title for the past three months.

Here are the Nissan Leaf and Chevy Volt Stats for the trailing 6 months:


Notice a trend? Looks to me like the Volt is really on the upswing. Nice upward slope from July to Oct. Flat for Oct to Nov. Then a spike in December (back to same upward slope).


3. Even with Record Sales, Chevy Volt Production is Very Close To Sales (Supply = Demand... or maybe Supply < Demand):


Of course many of the sales in December were built in November or other months.

However, this is a very good indicator that supply and demand are at least aligned for this vehicle. It may even be an indicator of pent up, unmet demand. Typical vehicles are on the showrooms for a minimum of several weeks. Are sales lagging production?

Keep in mind they launched nationally on 11/1/2011 (only 65 days ago). Perhaps GM has finally ramped up enough to have a national supply of the vehicle? There seems to be enough of a cushion now to account for foreign sales, fleet sales, demo sales etc.and still have a reasonable national stock.


Did I miss anything?
Do you have any other thoughts?

Please comment.
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I think that you pretty well summarised the situation.
The allocation numbers in Canada is well below demand. There is not a single Volt available in dealer's lots
around Montreal. If you place an order for one, you must allow a few months (6-8 months) before reception.
GM allocated a good allocation of Volts for the states, but could easily sell a lot more in Canada and Europe.

The sales trend show there is a nice acceleration of sales, so if the trend stays as it is, the Volt will surpass
total Leaf sales and become more and more popular.
 

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It will be hard to find an official press release from GM stating a 10,000 sales target. But with some effort, you will find GM officials being quoted on saying the goal was 10,000 and also that they missed the 10,000.

The number of cars a company produces is never the interesting number without knowing the number of cars they actually sold. So flaunting that GM built 15,000 built number while only 8,000-9,000 sold doesn't help your case.

The Volt will prove itself over time. Perceived low gas prices (in 2005 everyone was freaking out when gas hit $3 so they were dumping their SUVs at a huge loss to buy a Honda at a huge premium, now $3 is considered cheap), the stupid political attacks on the car, and the stupid fire issues are the real problem.
 

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Great write-up. Any "perceived" lack of sales in the US will easily be made up by increasing exports to Canada, Europe and China. To the naysayers: isn't it great to export U.S. products too?
 

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August Volt sales increased 141%
September Volt sales increased 139%,
October Volt sales increased 53%,
November Volt sales increased 3%,
December Volt sales increased 34%

Certainly not the dismal failure the headline writers are making it out to be, especially in light of all the manufactured negativity being spewed by the politically motivated.
 

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You can find an offical GM press release here
http://media.gm.com/content/product...Pages/news/us/en/2010/Nov/1124_volt_unplugged

That says
Chevy will sell about 10,000 Volts through the end of 2011 with 45,000 planned for 2012.
So while some docs say produce, others did say sell.

Original production plans were 10K, but they were increased earlier in the year to 16K total (worldwide), see
http://gm-volt.com/forum/showthread.php?9413-GM-postpones-2nd-shift-at-Hamtramck-Volt-plant
 

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Take the Opel Ampera number produced and do an inter-division "sale" from US to European division of GM.
Add the sales in Canada which were at least 800 for the year.

Now, they've easily "sold" 10,000 :)
 

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Do any of you remember that sales of Leaf declined for the same reason as the Volt? The plant stopped production to tool up for the 2012 changes. You will see higher sales from here forward.
 

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Do any of you remember that sales of Leaf declined for the same reason as the Volt? The plant stopped production to tool up for the 2012 changes. You will see higher sales from here forward.
I agree. But just as all the negative spins from same fact of Volt's December sales, people on here spin negatively on Leaf's number too :)
 

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Discussion Starter · #10 ·
You can find an offical GM press release here
http://media.gm.com/content/product...Pages/news/us/en/2010/Nov/1124_volt_unplugged

That says


So while some docs say produce, others did say sell.

Original production plans were 10K, but they were increased earlier in the year to 16K total (worldwide), see
http://gm-volt.com/forum/showthread.php?9413-GM-postpones-2nd-shift-at-Hamtramck-Volt-plant
Thank you @tboult I will update the Blog. Looks like that changed the estimate in March.... if you try to connect the dots... or they simply used a more conservative number inadvertently.

Did Volt hit 16K for 2011 worldwide?
 

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Thank you @tboult I will update the Blog. Looks like that changed the estimate in March.... if you try to connect the dots... or they simply used a more conservative number inadvertently.

Did Volt hit 16K for 2011 worldwide?
For production yes.. 14K+ for Volt, 2K+ for Ampera. Numbers and links in one of my posts in the sales threads

Edit: added them here

Production was
MY12 Year to date 11,241 CY2011 14,510
OPEL AMPER MYTD 2,605

So they met their 2011 production plans (originally 10K, increased to 15K)

http://media.gm.com/content/dam/Media/gmcom/investor/2012/0101ProductionPlant.pdf
 

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[QUOTE Did Volt hit 16K for 2011 worldwide?[/QUOTE]

From the GM production by plant news release of today, the HAMTRACK plant has the following pertinent numbers:
2011 MYTD THRU DEC 2011: 4488 Volts 0 Amperas

2012 MYTD THRU DEC 2011: 11241 Volts 2605 Amperas

2012 CYTD THRU DEC 2011: 14510 Volts 2605 Amperas

MYTD: Model Year To Date (The Model year changes in the october production, I think).
CYTD: Calendar Year To Date.
So, the PRODUCTION of Volts and Amperas for the calendar year 2011 was of 14510 + 2605 = 17115 cars.

To have a comparison point, would you qualify the Chevrolet Corvette as a sales success? well, the Corvette was
produced at the Bowling green plant, with the CYTD THRU DEC 2011 of 13222 cars.
(There was more Volts than Corvettes produced, 3893 more during the same Calendar year).

Of course, the Corvette and the Volt are not cars for the same market segment, and they are with a very different
mission, but since the 'vette is regularily sold, and the Volt has bigger production numbers than the 'vette, well that
comparison is pretty positive for the Volt, IMHO.

I am quite optimistic about a steady and higher market penetration of the Volt, as time goes.
 
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