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Discussion Starter #1
23% Of Tesla Model 3 Reservations Have Been Refunded


Graph for those who like graphs

It seems likely a large portion of these latest cancellations are related to the pushback of the base $35,000 version of the sedan and price-sensitive customers realizing they won’t be able to take advantage of the full $7,500 tax credit that begins to phase out when a manufacturer reaches the 200,000 mark.

While the issue certainly makes for a dramatic headline, the cancellations won’t really affect Tesla for now. It’s still far from being able to keep up with demand. It had targeted producing 5,000 Model 3’s per week by the end of this month, a rate which would equal 260,000 units over a year.
Full story at Inside EVs
 

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Still a lot of reservations, and I imagine many of those orders come back when Model 3 is available for $35k. People got tired of waiting.
 

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The pending loss of the $7500 is probably the main reason. I wonder what GM plan's on doing with the Bolt once they are faced with the tax credit phase out?
 

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I'm part of that far left April 2016 bar. I thought was the only one, but it appears that others were early defectors.
 

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77% of the Tesla Model 3 "waiters" are still hanging in there!
 

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The pending loss of the $7500 is probably the main reason.
I wonder what GM plan's on doing with the Bolt once they are faced with the tax credit phase out?
It will certainly be interesting for Bolt and Volt sales volume when this happens to GM.
I'm sure the Volt PHEV competitors are looking forward to this as $7500 buys a lot of electricity/gas.
I'm not sure that either GM or Tesla will lower their prices tho.

TM3: My son wants the AWD but he may potentially switch to the RWD depending on the timing of the tax credit. I suspect others may too.
 

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It looks to me like those requesting refunds have been pretty evenly replaced by people joining the other two categories (new reservation holders or those who have purchased a Tesla).
 

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Not sure GM really wants "electrification", spite Mrs Barra comments,and reassurances...Just came back from 3 huge Savannah dealerships, none of them do the 5 years 3 system radiators coolant flush...the technicians around have no idea what a VOLT is ,and I am really tired of educating the dealer/ salesman of how the VOLT works !!!. I will have to go hundreds of miles away to flush the radiators (Atlanta,Miami), who knows. So far the GM dealerships with thousands of cars and trucks, still are in in the 1960's, probably I should get myself a Camaro . LOL
 

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It looks to me like those requesting refunds have been pretty evenly replaced by people joining the other two categories (new reservation holders or those who have purchased a Tesla).
It's too early to tell. If you only look at Jan through Apr 2018, whether the defectors increase linearly or logarithmically, it will eat into the overall sales numbers. I think Tesla needs to really ramp up their game with more shipped vehicles, ability to order AWD, as well as ability to order a stripper model to reverse this trend.
 
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77% of the Tesla Model 3 "waiters" are still hanging in there!
I'm very surprised that the 23% is as low as it is - If you had asked me, I would have guessed that number to be bout 40%

I would imagine most of those who got a refund did so because they got tired of waiting and bought something else and they can't afford both that car AND the Tesla

Don
 

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And this is a surprise?

When you advertise a car with the cache of a Tesla for 35-7.5 = 27.5 out the door, you get a lot of reservations. When the price goes up 20K (almost double) you lose a lot of reservations. And considering that a Tesla has that cache, I'm not even sure that the Volt/Bolt/etc. are replacements for those cancelled reservations. These might have been people looking to try EV if they could get the "Tesla" version, and who would otherwise purchase a small Bmer or MB.
 

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Discussion Starter #14
It looks to me like those requesting refunds have been pretty evenly replaced by people joining the other two categories (new reservation holders or those who have purchased a Tesla).
It's too early to tell. If you only look at Jan through Apr 2018, whether the defectors increase linearly or logarithmically, it will eat into the overall sales numbers. I think Tesla needs to really ramp up their game with more shipped vehicles, ability to order AWD, as well as ability to order a stripper model to reverse this trend.
Inside EVs said:
Looking at their graph, it seems the bloom really started to come off the rose this past January, with the deflowering accelerating in April. Of course, new reservations are still coming in but their pace has not been equal to those receiving their $1,000 deposit back. According to Recode, which also covered the issue, Tesla says the Second Measure numbers do not “align with its internal data, but would not be more specific as to how far off it is.” We’ have also reached out for clarification and will update this post with any new information.
Per the article.
 

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Not sure GM really wants "electrification", spite Mrs Barra comments,and reassurances...Just came back from 3 huge Savannah dealerships, none of them do the 5 years 3 system radiators coolant flush...the technicians around have no idea what a VOLT is ,and I am really tired of educating the dealer/ salesman of how the VOLT works !!!. I will have to go hundreds of miles away to flush the radiators (Atlanta,Miami), who knows. So far the GM dealerships with thousands of cars and trucks, still are in in the 1960's, probably I should get myself a Camaro . LOL
Even buying an EV can be hard (or impossible). Try ordering a $35k Tesla Model 3 for example...
 

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Discussion Starter #16
I have to wonder where you put your skis/snowboard/mountain bike rack?
I don't think you'll be getting an AV ride out to the ski slopes for a while. For the near future it'll be a cosmopolitan thing.

Even buying an EV can be hard (or impossible). Try ordering a $35k Tesla Model 3 for example...
Ummmm........
 

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I still contend EVs are coming at a glacial pace. We get all sorts of rumors about the model 3 in late 2015, reveal in March 2016, first 30 in June 2017 and we’re still waiting for them to get mass produced at a decent clip. GM is promising 20 electrified vehicle’s, when? ford and VW are also jumping in, but is will probably be 2020 before we see them in all states on showroom floors. I sure hope Ford and VW don’t pull a GM and only ship for Cali and OR for a year or two before the rest of the CONUS.

I’m definitely not holding my breath for the Tesla Model Y or Roadster 2.0. Tesla has to stop bleeding cash and appear to be vibrant before I jump in on a model S (which is due for an update as it’s getting long in the tooth). Just keep the same drivetrain, update the battery with newer tech that gets you 400 miles of range, and give us a refreshed body in sedan, coupe, and wagon form factors, then for the wagon, also offer a lifted version like the Volvo Cross Country or Subaru CrossTrek and there’s your CUV. Why they aren’t reusing more than they are is beyond me.
 

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GM would love to have this problem, over 250K folks wanting to buy an EV. I'm a glass half full guy. In this case I guess more accurately a glass 3/4 full. That's a nice problem to have while we still wait for GM's new EV's to be announced.
 

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Discussion Starter #19
GM would love to have this problem, over 250K folks wanting to buy an EV.
No one wants to sell a quantity of cars at a loss. Tesla won't sell $35K M3s right now. Musk says Tesla would die.

Elon Musk on Twitter said:
With production, 1st you need achieve target rate & then smooth out flow to achieve target cost. Shipping min cost Model 3 right away wd cause Tesla to lose money & die. Need 3 to 6 months after 5k/wk to ship $35k Tesla & live.
GM couldn't do what they do now if they weren't making massive amounts of cash on SUVs and light trucks. Tesla doesn't have that luxury.

And it looks like failing to sell M3s at $35K may well be causing the cancellations.
 

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GM would love to have this problem, over 250K folks wanting to buy an EV. I'm a glass half full guy. In this case I guess more accurately a glass 3/4 full. That's a nice problem to have while we still wait for GM's new EV's to be announced.
GM doesn't have this problem because they already have a low priced, high range EV on the market for sales -- The Bolt.
 
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