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Discussion Starter #1

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Yes lots of choices are good. I for one would like to see what the Buick looks like or at minimum will buy a Bolt when GM puts ACC in the darn thing.
 

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We'll find out in September, but BMW might be releasing their 3 Series EV by then as well.

Still, it might take several more years before the price-sensitive markets (sub $25,000 before incentives) start to see viable, everyday EVs. The Bolt EV might be one of the first cars to make it to that price point.

The elephant in the room is how much battery production capacity will be available by then. Most of the major manufacturers might still be seeing these EVs as small-market share offerings with limited releases. So while we might have nearly 100 plug-in models to choose from by 2020, if every manufacturer only has the capacity to produce 20,000 to 30,000 of them a year, the impact won't be what it should.
 

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We'll find out in September, but BMW might be releasing their 3 Series EV by then as well.

Still, it might take several more years before the price-sensitive markets (sub $25,000 before incentives) start to see viable, everyday EVs. The Bolt EV might be one of the first cars to make it to that price point.

The elephant in the room is how much battery production capacity will be available by then. Most of the major manufacturers might still be seeing these EVs as small-market share offerings with limited releases. So while we might have nearly 100 plug-in models to choose from by 2020, if every manufacturer only has the capacity to produce 20,000 to 30,000 of them a year, the impact won't be what it should.
This has always puzzled me. In the history of manufacturing, there has never been as much speculation and hysteria as there has been with battery production in the 21st Century.

Let's change the nouns.

Cellphone production is climbing at an alarming rate.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/330695/number-of-smartphone-users-worldwide/

The current 2017 production levels of charging cords is not enough to service the demand. Copper, one of the most expensive components of these cords, can fluctuate wildly:

http://www.infomine.com/investment/metal-prices/copper/all/

Cellphone prices will be held hostage by the lack of charging cord production and copper prices.


Do you see how silly that sounds? Investors are like lemmings. If one decides jumping off a cliff is clever idea, thousands follow and deem it logical and 'what the market needs'. They will write hundreds of articles and white papers why jumping off cliffs is completely justified mathematically. Of course they will ignore that whole acceleration of gravity and height of cliff since it interferes with their reasoning.

Lithium battery prices will determine how many factories make them, and how much materials for them will be mined/produced, not the other way around. If demand drops, prices will drop briefly, then climb as factories go BK and mines are shut down, and capital markets dry up in the sector.

There should be a requirement that anybody buying shares of stock in a company have at least 1 semester of managerial acct'g. Think about it. A part owner of a corporation with no idea how a business works? How silly that idea? Or more importantly, how dangerous is that idea?
 

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This has always puzzled me. In the history of manufacturing, there has never been as much speculation and hysteria as there has been with battery production in the 21st Century.

Let's change the nouns.

Cellphone production is climbing at an alarming rate.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/330695/number-of-smartphone-users-worldwide/

The current 2017 production levels of charging cords is not enough to service the demand. Copper, one of the most expensive components of these cords, can fluctuate wildly:

http://www.infomine.com/investment/metal-prices/copper/all/

Cellphone prices will be held hostage by the lack of charging cord production and copper prices.


Do you see how silly that sounds? Investors are like lemmings. If one decides jumping off a cliff is clever idea, thousands follow and deem it logical and 'what the market needs'. They will write hundreds of articles and white papers why jumping off cliffs is completely justified mathematically. Of course they will ignore that whole acceleration of gravity and height of cliff since it interferes with their reasoning.

Lithium battery prices will determine how many factories make them, and how much materials for them will be mined/produced, not the other way around. If demand drops, prices will drop briefly, then climb as factories go BK and mines are shut down, and capital markets dry up in the sector.

There should be a requirement that anybody buying shares of stock in a company have at least 1 semester of managerial acct'g. Think about it. A part owner of a corporation with no idea how a business works? How silly that idea? Or more importantly, how dangerous is that idea?
In this case, I think those are apples to oranges comparisons. Each Chevy Bolt EV represents about 10,000 iPhones worth of batteries. The scale of what we're talking about is very large. Also, I'm really not concerned about the availability of raw materials; I'm concerned about the short-term production capacity from highly specialized factories.

Many auto manufacturers are thinking ahead, and they are building additional battery facilities. However, most of those facilities will not be online for at least another four to five years. My only point is that, while we might have plenty of plug-in options to choose from by 2019, most of them will see slow production ramps (like the Bolt EV's) due to battery production constraints. Essentially, battery production capacity will lag behind and form a bottleneck until those new battery production facilities come online (2020 to 2025).

Could it be done sooner? Sure. But I don't see that there is much incentive for any of the auto makers (other than Tesla). The scarcity of EV products actually benefits those other auto makers because they can justify both charging a premium for their EV offerings and steering their customers toward higher-profit ICE vehicles.
 

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Discussion Starter #6
Do you see how silly that sounds? Investors are like lemmings. If one decides jumping off a cliff is clever idea, thousands follow and deem it logical and 'what the market needs'. They will write hundreds of articles and white papers why jumping off cliffs is completely justified mathematically. Of course they will ignore that whole acceleration of gravity and height of cliff since it interferes with their reasoning.

..<snip>...

There should be a requirement that anybody buying shares of stock in a company have at least 1 semester of managerial acct'g. Think about it. A part owner of a corporation with no idea how a business works? How silly that idea? Or more importantly, how dangerous is that idea?
I am wholeheartedly against this crazy idea of teaching people how to properly invest. How else am I able to capitalize on other people's emotions, over-reactions to business news, and desire to chase profits (buy high) and bail when the market falls (sell low)?
 

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In this case, I think those are apples to oranges comparisons. Each Chevy Bolt EV represents about 10,000 iPhones worth of batteries. The scale of what we're talking about is very large. Also, I'm really not concerned about the availability of raw materials; I'm concerned about the short-term production capacity from highly specialized factories.

Many auto manufacturers are thinking ahead, and they are building additional battery facilities. However, most of those facilities will not be online for at least another four to five years. My only point is that, while we might have plenty of plug-in options to choose from by 2019, most of them will see slow production ramps (like the Bolt EV's) due to battery production constraints. Essentially, battery production capacity will lag behind and form a bottleneck until those new battery production facilities come online (2020 to 2025).

Could it be done sooner? Sure. But I don't see that there is much incentive for any of the auto makers (other than Tesla). The scarcity of EV products actually benefits those other auto makers because they can justify both charging a premium for their EV offerings and steering their customers toward higher-profit ICE vehicles.
http://insideevs.com/ev-battery-makers-2016-panasonic-and-byd-combine-to-hold-majority-of-market/

The increase in EV battery production is actually exceeding increases in sales.
 

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http://insideevs.com/ev-battery-makers-2016-panasonic-and-byd-combine-to-hold-majority-of-market/

The increase in EV battery production is actually exceeding increases in sales.
I don't think you can make a direct comparison of battery production to EV sales. The total 2016 battery production (20.4 GWh) would be enough to build 600,000 to 700,000 Nissan Leafs, BMW i3s, etc.; however, it would only be enough to build about 300,000 Chevy Bolt EVs. So the numbers have to be rectified so that we are measuring the actual increase in battery capacity used by EVs.

Still, my understanding is that those battery manufacturers are close to maxing out their current capacity. Even Tesla, with their Gigafactory in full swing, is having to buy battery cells from Samsung to build their Australian PowerPack project. And Tesla alone will take up twice the battery capacity for EVs in 2018 than the entire battery production capacity for EVs in 2016.

Now, if non-Tesla battery production can increase by another 200% by 2019, we will see enough production capacity for maybe 1,000,000 plug-in vehicles (maybe 30,000 of each model on average). I hope that happens, but I'm not holding my breath.
 

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So while we might have nearly 100 plug-in models to choose from by 2020, if every manufacturer only has the capacity to produce 20,000 to 30,000 of them a year, the impact won't be what it should.
I don't know about what "should" be. I think this statement makes a logical leap that ignores the more important factor - DEMAND.

Don't start with how many Tesla deposits there are. There are so many ways to disqualify that. I'm from Missouri (okay, my mother is but...). Show me the sales when they happen. Show me what fraction of the car market that is.

What I can say is that EV sales are up by a margin every month over last year.



But it's still a few drops in the ocean.

 

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But it's still a few drops in the ocean.
Don't ignore the worldwide sales numbers. We are talking about global battery production.

A "logical leap" might be too extreme. What I'm talking about is a logical step. Most manufacturers build first and then create demand. So other than Tesla, every other manufacturer is going to start by building their vehicles, and they will ramp up as much as they can as the demand presents itself. We already know that dozens of new EV models are being proposed, and almost every one of them will use a battery that is much larger than the current crop of short-range EVs.

So I don't think that it is too much of a leap to say that battery demand (if only on the manufacturer side) is going to increase sharply, and in the short-term, I think it will out pace the increase in battery production.
 

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We will see. Battery production continues to climb to meet demand. When it doesn't, then there will be a concern. EV production climbed over 1000% percent since 2011. Batteries still are not a problem.
 

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Don't ignore the worldwide sales numbers. We are talking about global battery production.
The global numbers are on that chart.

A "logical leap" might be too extreme. What I'm talking about is a logical step. Most manufacturers build first and then create demand.
Manufacturers don't create demand. Marketing doesn't create demand, contrary to the beliefs of some.

So other than Tesla, every other manufacturer is going to start by building their vehicles, and they will ramp up as much as they can as the demand presents itself.
They can meet and can exceed the demand. Whether they do that or not is another question. Bolt demand in places is much higher than supply (Canada for example) but recent reports had Bolts accumulating in California, supposedly a high demand state.

We already know that dozens of new EV models are being proposed, and almost every one of them will use a battery that is much larger than the current crop of short-range EVs.
I don't know anything of the sort. I know what they say, and I know how that can go in the end. That's all I know.

So I don't think that it is too much of a leap to say that battery demand (if only on the manufacturer side) is going to increase sharply, and in the short-term, I think it will out pace the increase in battery production.
We shall see if your opinion pans out. Right now, even with increased EV sales as they are there is no substantial supply issue.

As for the hyperbolic term "breakout", I'm very dubious. What I see is increased competition for a very small market sector. The perception here is often more important than the reality. "Look how green we are" is becoming a marketing pandemic. VW certainly has a "being green" issue, as do the rest in varying degrees.
 

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Discussion Starter #13 (Edited)
As for the hyperbolic term "breakout", I'm very dubious. What I see is increased competition for a very small market sector. The perception here is often more important than the reality. "Look how green we are" is becoming a marketing pandemic. VW certainly has a "being green" issue, as do the rest in varying degrees.
By "breakout" maybe I should qualify that with finally some selections of AWD roomy SUVs/CUVs. Volvo and Tesla already have them. BMW's electric offerings are a far cry from the ultimate driving machine - OK maybe the i8 is there, but these other eHybrid drive cars seems to be an electric afterthought added to a gas engine. Mitsubishi seems to have fallen off the face of the planet with their Outlander PHEV. Maybe in 2019....

http://insideevs.com/mitsubishi-outlander-phev-delayed-us-summer-2017/

Buick, Ford, Vw, Audi, Jaguar, maybe a Caddy, and more Volvos are on the way.
 

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I am wholeheartedly against this crazy idea of teaching people how to properly invest. How else am I able to capitalize on other people's emotions, over-reactions to business news, and desire to chase profits (buy high) and bail when the market falls (sell low)?
By the time these articles see the light of day...the smart money has already set their equity position to benefit from the panic stricken unwashed masses demand for mining stocks...or as Louis Winthorpe said..."Sell 30 April at 142!"
 

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By "breakout" maybe I should qualify that with finally some selections of AWD roomy SUVs/CUVs. Volvo and Tesla already have them. BMW's electric offerings are a far cry from the ultimate driving machine - OK maybe the i8 is there, but these other eHybrid drive cars seems to be an electric afterthought added to a gas engine. Mitsubishi seems to have fallen off the face of the planet with their Outlander PHEV.

Buick, Ford, Vw, Audi, Jaguar, maybe a Caddy, and more Volvos are on the way.
I agree that before a "breakout" will occur PHEV/BEV versions of CUVs in the red hot Equinox/RAV4/CRV size/price market will need to be widely available. All the offerings I have seen on the radar are either smaller (Niro) or a lot more expensive (iPace, Model Y) than required to hit the sweet spot of the market. There are distant rumors of a plug in CRV and GM could certainly build a Voltec Equinox but I don't see anything firm yet.
 

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By "breakout" maybe I should qualify that with finally some selections of AWD roomy SUVs/CUVs. Volvo and Tesla already have them. BMW's electric offerings are a far cry from the ultimate driving machine - OK maybe the i8 is there, but these other eHybrid drive cars seems to be an electric afterthought added to a gas engine. Mitsubishi seems to have fallen off the face of the planet with their Outlander PHEV.

Buick, Ford, Vw, Audi, Jaguar, maybe a Caddy, and more Volvos are on the way.
Buick for one is still a rumor. I've read some articles on Volvo projections that are less optimistic than their marketing. Cadillac fails at selling anything with a battery in the US every time.

Current VW and Ford offerings are anemic compared to GM (Chevy) and Tesla. I'm not sure about Jaguar and Audi. E-Tron is selling in the hundreds and Jaguar has yet to appear on the EV scorecard unless I missed it.

I like the pretty new Audi car porn, but let's try to leave the smoke blowing to the car maker PR guys.
 

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Buick for one is still a rumor. I've read some articles on Volvo projections that are less optimistic than their marketing. Cadillac fails at selling anything with a battery in the US every time.

Current VW and Ford offerings are anemic compared to GM (Chevy) and Tesla. I'm not sure about Jaguar and Audi. E-Tron is selling in the hundreds and Jaguar has yet to appear on the EV scorecard unless I missed it.

I like the pretty new Audi car porn, but let's try to leave the smoke blowing to the car maker PR guys.
When GM starts putting their Voltec technology into their large trucks only then will we see widespread proliferation of EV and PHEV technology. Also, as GM and others, except Tesla, have found advertising EV for EV purposes simply doesn't work.

I definitely have to agree that so far only Tesla and Chevy have been able to produce electric cars that are worth buying.
 

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Also, as GM and others, except Tesla, have found advertising EV for EV purposes simply doesn't work.
Tesla doesn't do advertising. They do marketing, and differently than the traditional model in a number of ways.

The media plays along very nicely. They love billionaire "market disruptors". Musk only has to pass gas and FBN and others are reporting on it's fragrant bouquet. That's not unique to Tesla though. Apple and the rest of the FANG stocks all get the same treatment. I was just watching a clip of Zuckerberg spouting off some ignorant speech yesterday. Apparently he's ready to "cure all diseases".
 
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