Tom,
Over a year ago, I remember financial talking heads sitting around a table debating whether the US automakers would be bankrupt in 5 years or 10 years, but there was no doubt that they would be bankrupt. I used to work a GM and two of my brothers still do, so it was sad to see the inevitable.
I believe it was a Delphi plant shutdown in which, through arbitration, the UAW benefit plan was given 71 cents on the dollar as a parting gift, and I thought to myself - lucky bastards, they got the best deal, because when GM shuts down, the rest won't get that much.
I was stunned when the UAW, through their latest contract, chose to accept 71 cents on the dollar against all benefit liabilities, to take the monkey of GM's back, and even more stunned that they allowed GM to hire to workers at a rate slightly above Toyota's and Honda's North American factories. GM also announced the E-REV platform and the federal government passed the 2007 CAFE standards in line with that platform.
With all those changes, I realized that GM has a window of opportunity, in which they can retake significant market share, while creating a product that will help the rest of the American economy, by getting us off expensive foreign oil, and using domestic renewable energy sources. Our trade deficit would balance, making the dollar strong again. It was such a beautiful alignment of all the stars, that I once again hold out hope for GM and the US auto industry.
That said, it is only a WINDOW of opportunity, which I see that GM is doing EVERYTHING they can to catch. Compared to all other automakers, GM is the most aggressively pursing it, and as a result, they are best positioned to succeed. I fear far more for Ford and Chrysler, as they are admitting that they are 2 years behind.