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Jul 08

Poll: Is 10,000 Volts in First Year a Good Idea?

 

We heard GM last week officially announce it would be producing 10,000 Chevy Volts in the the first year of production, calendar year 2011.  Marketing director Tony DiSalle also said Volt dealers would specifically have to retain a Volt on the premises for demonstration and test drive purposes.  GM spokesperson Rob Peterson says those 3000 or so demo cars would not come from the 10,000 vehicle allotment, so in the end there will still be 10,000 to sell.

By mid 2011, the Volt will be on sale in seven out of 50 states, it will be another 6 to 12 months from then before all 50 states have them on sale.

Very clearly there is much more demand for Volts than 10,000 cars can satisfy even at a price around $40,000, which isn’t confirmed.

So this begs the question as to whether GM’s strategy to limit availability is a good idea.

Those among us, especially in less-populated states, don’t think so for personal reasons; i.e. they cannot get one.  Those among us who would like to see the country begin to reduce petroleum usage as fast as possible also are unhappy as such a small volume won’t make much of a dent.

So why is GM doing this, and is it a good idea for them?

There seems to be five major reasons for this decision; to keep the car in strong demand, to allow for maximum quality builds off the production line, limitation of supplier components such as batteries, to keep a close eye on real-world behavior and to be able to react to any issues, and to minimize financial loss.

Demand
GM knows there is more demand than for 10,000 cars. By keeping demand far greater than supply, it ensures interest in the car and news about it. It also allows justification of a higher price. Plummeting prices and the need to discount the Volt wouldn’t be a good thing for GM.  Also if the cars really take off GM could make positive announcements about demand exceeding supply.  The presence of the Nissan LEAF will also place some pressure on the early adopter market.

Quality
The Volt utilizes the Voltec drivetrain, a large lithium-ion battery, and an array of specialized software controls. No car like it has ever been sold in the mass market before. GM knows it must produce a very high quality vehicle as the car has been under the microscope for a long time and will continue to be. Any quality failure would be very bad press. By limiting the line build rate, GM can ensure each and every Volt is built to the highest quality standards possible.

Components
The most important external component going into the Volt is its lithium-ion battery back. The cells are being made in Korea by LG Chem and shipped to the US where they are then assembled into packs at GMs battery assembly plant. Both the cell and pack assembly line are limited, with a maximum current volume believed to be for about 50,000 packs. Like the cars, these packs must be very carefully assembled to ensure high quality.

Surveillance
Once the Volts enter the public space, GM will continue to watch them closely to be able to react if any issues arise. So much so, OnStar will be especially amped up, required, and included free in the Volt allowing very precise monitoring of software controls and every cell in the packs. By keeping volumes and geographic locations restricted, GM can more carefully monitor these vehicles, and quickly issue any fixes if the need arises.

Minimize Losses
Though we do not yet know the Volt’s official MSRP, it is likely they will be initially sold as a loss. Keeping production volume low will mitigate large financial burden especially during IPO season, and still allow for eventual cost reductions over time.

So though many of us are disappointed with GM’s first year Volt volume, they have valid reasons for it. Toyota for example only built 12,000 Priuses in it first year of production, despite high demand for it in Japan at the time. It wasn’t brought into the US until later.

Nissan, though projecting large LEAF demand down the line will also only be producing about 25,000 cars for the North American market by the end of 2011.  For the first several months, availability will be limited to five locations.


 

Jul 06

Chevrolet Volt Highway Ride

 

I had the chance to ride in the Chevrolet Volt prototype that GM staff drove from Austin Texas to New York City on July 4th.

This particular prototype, called “a golden IVer” due to its proximity to a final production car, had been built in December 2009, and had nearly 10,000 engineering miles on it. The software controls were more than 99% complete according to Will Handzel, the GM controls engineer who actually drove the car. Interior surfacing was still a bit rudimentary and there was a bit of wear and tear inside.

This was my first chance to ride in the Volt (I had the passenger seat) in real-world highway driving situations, though I have driven it for about an hour, sub-50 mph around around a test track.  We took the car about 15 miles from Liberty Park in NJ to midtown Manhattan.

I found the car very cheerful, pleasant and bright. It was spacious and airy inside. Even though the day was bright and sunny, the LCD displays were very bright, crisp and vivid. I saw the OnStar navigation system in action and it worked perfectly, as did the handsfree phone and the capacitive controls, though Will felt they took a bit of getting used to.

When we started off in the car it had about 4 miles of EV range, and once again I missed the switchover to generator mode, never noticing it. The car was smooth and solid all the way. The only sound I could notice was from the fan from the air conditioning which worked terrifically, in comfort mode, on a day it was more than 95 degrees outside.

I specifically asked Will to demonstrate accelerating from 55 to 80 MPH, while we were on the highway. When I asked him, he said throughout his 1776 mile drive, and indeed all his Volt driving, passing on the highway was never a problem.  ”We never had an issue,” he said.  Acceleration from low speed and stop certainly wasn’t a problem, the car springs onto the highway with gusto.

Acceleration from 55 to 80 was strong and linear. There was no customary downshift effect people may be accustomed to in traditional vehicles, but, that really didn’t matter. The car swiftly made it to high passing speed in a constant and confident fashion.

Yes, this is different than a standard gas car, but in my opinion represented no trade off or loss of function. It worked wonderfully well.

It was also very quiet while driving.  After getting out and standing aside it, while it was idling in the heat, the engine could be heard running.

Still no final word on final fuel efficiency numbers, as GM still says they are being negotiated with the EPA, but obviously will be finalized and made public soon. Expectations are that fuel economy will be somewhat above that of the best-in-class standard gas compact car.

In conclusion, there are no surprises here, the car handles capably in the highway setting.

You can check out my experience in the video below:

 

Jul 01

New York and Texas Named as Initial Volt Markets, Celebrate July 4th in NYC at Finish of the Volt Freedom Drive

 

We thought California, Michigan, and Washington DC were going to be the only initial Chevrolet Volt launch markets, but apparently GM had other plans in mind.

Today in a speech in Austin Texas, GM CEO Ed Whitacre announced that New York and Texas will join the other three states as initial Chevy Volt launch markets.

He also announced that New Jersey and Connecticut would be included in the first launch wave in early 2011, bringing the total first Volt states to seven. For New York and Texas, Volts will only be available in New York City and the city of Austin in 2010, with the remainder of those states getting allocations in 2011.

GM said it was the intense interest they were seeing that prompted the inclusion of these additional markets, not to mention that Volt is designed and engineered to handle those more challenging climates.

“We can add markets as diverse as Texas and New York because the Chevrolet Volt can handle both urban commuting and longer trips, in Austin summers and Manhattan winters,” Whitacre said. “The Volt can be your primary vehicle, giving you the freedom to drive gas-free without the stress of planning every trip around the battery’s charge level.”

“Chevrolet is extending the Volt launch to additional states because of strong customer interest and our confidence in all aspects of the vehicle and battery,” added Tony DiSalle, Chevrolet Volt marketing director.

To celebrate this terrific announcement (I’m a New Yorker) GM will drive a Volt from Austin Texas straight to New York City, a 1776 mile trip that would be considerably more tricky in a pure electric car.

GM is calling this trip the Freedom Drive, representing both freedom from oil and freedom from range anxiety.

“This drive is a demonstration of the freedom the Volt will provide customers – freedom to drive where you want, when you want,” said DiSalle. “Whether you are driving 50 miles or 1,750 miles, the Volt is the only electric vehicle that can be a family’s primary car.”

The Volt will take the last leg of the journey from New Jersey to New York, stopping briefly along the New Jersey Turnpike to pick up none other than yours truly as I accompany Volt vehicle line director Tony Posawatz for the home stretch. I will also be able to asses and experience firsthand in a nearly complete car the true performance of the Volt in real-world world highway driving, hopefully putting recent rumors to rest..

We will arrive at Pier 92 in New York City for an exclusive July 4th celebration. The celebration will include the Volt and members of the Volt team. The highlight of the party will of course be the famous Macy’s fireworks celebration over the Manhattan skyline. This waterfont pier location will be a perfect front row seat to experience the show.

In appreciation for our longstanding support, GM if offering GM-Volt readers free exclusive invitations to the party which will begin at 5:30 PM. There will be food drinks, friends and family are welcome.

The first 70 GM-Volt readers and their guests who registered here got exclusive free invitations to the event:

[UPDATE: CAPACITY FILLED]

On its way from Austin to New York the Volt will also stop off in Little Rock, AR on July 1; Nashville, TN and Roanoke, VA on July 2; Washington, D.C. and Frederick, MD on July 3; Philadelphia, PA and finally, New York City on July 4.

If you can’t make it to New York, enthusiasts in the Washington DC area can meet up at Criswell Chevrolet in Gaithersburg, MD on July 3rd. The time will be from 2PM to 4PM. There will be food and drinks and opportunity to test drive a Volt (confirmed).

Independence from oil is about to begin.

See you there!

 

Jun 29

Chevrolet Dealers Begin Volt Training as GM Determines How to Manage Customer Expectations

 

We are about four months from the date of the first Volt deliveries, and you can just feel the excitement mounting.  GM remains quiet about the rollout process and pricing but we will soon know the truth.

Chevrolet dealers in the launch markets are starting to see a build-up of information and communciation from GM to get them prepared for Volt sales and servicing.  Just this week dealers became able to download  an early Volt Salesperson Reference Guide.  It is attached here.

I had the chance to discuss dealer certification with Volt marketing director Tony DiSalle.

How will you go about getting the first cars to people? How can you find a fair method with all these years of demand out there. Who gets the first ones?
That’s another story we’ll have for you at some point when the time is right. That is something we’re thinking through.

All these things have potential negative backlash and you don’t want to have that?
Right. For sure. What’s really key is being able to manage customer expectations and being really clear with consumers in terms of the markets that are eligible. We’re going to be crystal clear as dealers go through the certification process as to which ones are authorized Volt dealers.

When do they have to start doing that, it’s getting close isn’t it?
Yes it is getting close for sure. That will be much of next month as a matter of fact.

So they’re going to start next month?
Yes.

Do they voluntary choose to sell the Volt or will you direct it to certain dealerships?
We will be communicating with all of the dealers in the launch markets very shortly.

Everyone gets communicated to and some will choose to sell Volts and some won’t?
Yes. Based on the standards. We’ll have very clear standards for the dealerships.

We should soon know all the answers to these things?
You will, and believe me we’d love to just go shout it outright now, but there’s a lot here to communicate and communcaite very well and very purposefully and there’s certinaly an order that we have to go through, and there’s still some decisions that have to be made yet quite honestly.
Considering the high demand and low planned volume, how do you plan to manage that discordance?
The key I believe is through creating some pretty strong relationships with these intenders, communicating with them on aconsistent basis. We have a plan to do that and were encouraging as many as possible to come to Chevrolet.com to register with us so that we can communicate with them and so that everything thast ready to go public, they now.

And in terms of the product but more importantly certainly as you are inferring, the go to market timing and pricing when we’re ready to make that annoucnemnt and those sorts of things. Really when we get the question today, there are two things that we tell cusomters. One is what I just mentioned, go to Chevrolet.com register with us. That’s not a wait list for a car or anything like that but it makes sure that your in the know when we come out with new news so that we can get that new news to you and then secondly is contact a Chevrolet dealer and express your interest to that Chevroelt dealer for the Volt, because dealers are starting to take their own waitlists for customers right now.

So you’re advocating dealers to do that?
Well yeah and they have good relationships with their customers. Its important for customers to get with a dealer and then we know the dealers are maintinging their lists for the new Volt.

Will dealers have to do special training to be able to sell the car, is it not the intention for every Chevrolet dealer to have Volts for sale?
That is correct, there wil be a certification process for delaers string with those dealers in the launch markets. But quite frankly will be to a great extent depending on the dealers willingness to meet the requirements. The certification requirement in order to be eligible to sell and service the Volt.

So you imagine 50 percent or 75 percent will actually be certified to be able to sell Volts at the end of the day?
My sense it will probably be more than that but I cant give you a specific number.

 

Jun 25

GM Does Not Expect Dealer Price Gouging on Early Chevy Volts

 

Of the many fascinating topics surrounding the Chevy Volt, probably none evokes as much passion as the car’s price.

The car is likely to MSRP anywhere from low to high 30s but buyers will be eligible for a $7500 tax credit, bringing the effective price likely below $30,000.

There are always concerns, however, about possible dealer price gouging.

When highly desirable new technology products are available in limited supply and at limited locations, economic forces often dictate price escalations. It the simple supply and demand equation.

GM has said they will roll the Volt out gradually in waves, and reports suggest as little as a few hundred copies will make it to showrooms in late 2010. GM has also said only Chevy Dealers willing and able to take on the rigorous technical and training requirements will be given Volts to sell.

So with a symbolic waiting list here of over 51,000 people here and more than 40,000 handraisers on the Chevrolet.com site, and such intensely limited supply, one would think price escalations and bidding wars could turn out to be a big problem. Right?

Not so says GM nor should anyone be putting down deposits yet.

“We haven’t fully determined our go to market strategy, so any talk of a deposit is premature – we haven’t even announced pricing yet,” states GM spokesperson Phil Colley.

“We also aren’t expecting our dealers to overcharge anyone for this vehicle either and will monitor the situation closely when we launch,” he says.

Phil clarifies this statement a bit further saying “we’ll be paying close attention when the vehicle launches and do our best to strongly discourage this kind of behavior as we always do with any GM-branded vehicle.”

I asked Volt spokesperson David Darovitz what if anything GM could actually do to clamp down on this behavior if it is observed to occur.

“We strongly discourage dealers from this activity when it occurs, but we cannot direct their business decisions,” he says. “They are independent business owners.”

So will they gouge or won’t they?

Here’s what GM-Volt commentator Gordon Green had to say yesterday:

I checked with my local Chevy dealer, saying I’d like to order a Volt if I could get it for MSRP.

His comment:

“No I can not guarantee that. The first few will probably be over MSRP.”

 

Jun 24

Chevrolet Chief on Volt Early Adopters

 

It seems likely there will be great demand for the Volt when it arrives.  Those of us who are hoping to be among the first drivers are what GM calls the early adopters.

As GM VP Jon Lauckner has previously said, “there will be a lot of people who want to be part of that first group and have a Chevroelt Volt.”  The supply is limited though, and more recently GMs chief of EVs and hybrids Micky Bly said,“I feel strongly the early-adopter movement is done in North America.”

Jim Campbell is the chief of Chevrolet and thus oversees all of the brand’s marketing including Volt.  I had a discussion with him recently about who he thinks the early Volt adopters are and how or whether they will develop a special relationship with them (us).

I know there’s a large body of early Volt adopters out there with over 51,000 people on my symbolic list.  How will you capture those people and will you reach out specifically to the early adopters?

There’s no doubt there’s early adopters, and I think the early adopters have an amazing appreciation for technology combined with a green or eco-imperative in their lives.

So its really the two together that we think has the most potential particularly in the early stages.  People that really appreciate new technology combined with the green benefits that we’ll provide with the Chevrolet Volt.  That will be the initial target and then we’ll work very hard to look for ways to accelerate the adoption rate and adoption curve.  That’s really the task at hand for us.

There seems to big a large group of people that are mostly concerned with the energy independence.  They’re not necessarily technophiles or are concerned about emissions, but they don’t want to depend on foreign oil.  How big do you think that group is and do you have a way to market to them?

All those groups that we just talked about will be important and we’re going to need to reach out to them and show the benefits of this product as it relates to the things that are important to them in their lives.

So in some cases there is an intersection between those two or three groups we talked about.  In other cases there are not.

Some people just focus on the technology and its all about being an early adopter and the green benefits are nice to have.  I think there is a pretty large group in which there is an intersection between tech and green priorities and how they lives their lives at home, work, and other places.  So that going to be our opportunity particularly in the early stages.  I’m excited about it and coming back to Chevrolet.  Its an opportunity of a lifetime as a member of the Chevy team and as  a marketer and somebody who cares very deeply about the Chevrolet brand.

Its rolling the company.  We have a big job to do.  I think Volt can be a catalyst to help change the way people view Chevrolet broadly.

 
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