Shame on GM that they aren't out there daily hawking E-Flex and the Chevy Volt to Congress and the American Media as the ANSWER to America's Dependence on Foreign Oil. Instead off-the-wall Energy projects are coming up for public discussion, the latest being Shai Agassi's presentation to Congress last week, see:
http://www.autobloggreen.com/2008/07/01/shai-agassi-pitches-100-billion-plan/.
Don't get me wrong, "Project Better Place" is some great technology and if it works well in Israel it will put America to shame that we are so late taking the much easier step of marketing a Plug-in Hybrid EV with a 40-mile range.

So, what's wrong with "Project Better Place" and why is the Volt a better solution for America? The big difference is how they address the users' anxiety about getting stranded with no access to a recharge outlet. As we all know, the Volt just straps on an on-board generator so you always have access to electricity. The EV that Renault-Nissan is building for Israel will get 120 miles/charge so the weight and cost of the batteries is about 3 times the Volt's. So presumably each vehicle is about $15,000 more expensive "than it needs to be" and since even 120 miles per day doesn't solve the threat of getting stranded, the Project Better Place solution eventually requires about $500 BILLION in infrastructure for battery exchange stations.

Still think it's a cool idea; consider this: By the time an Americanized Project Better Place has built the infrastructure to support gasoline free transportation we could instead have offered a $50,000 tax credit on the first 10 MILLION CARS, or a $10,000 credit on the first 50 MILLION CARS; and at the end of this enormous expenditure we've changed our vehicle fleet while Project Better Place still has to buy cars. This isn't a solution to our energy problems, this is a recipe for the next Great Depression.

If your whole country is only 280 miles by 85 miles (and you take your life in your hands if you drive outside that box) maybe this scheme works, but for America - Give me a Series-Hybrid; Give me the Chevy VOLT.

Am I missing something here?

Dr. Mark, Why not just think of the Volt (and hybrids like it) as a Project Better Place car that does not need the swap-out station?

Are you against the cell phone like finance system or just the swap-out idea? I think we need the regular charging stations regardless. EVs and plug-in hybrids can greatly extend their usefulness if these Project Better Place charging stations are put in (the requirement is that they should be accessible to all EVs, not just to their own system).

You actually think building out a charging infrastructure for EVs and plug-in hybrids will bring us to a depression? If so, I could not disagree with you more. If anything it will be our way out just as the New Deal was the way out of our last depression. Building out a smart grid and electrifying our transportation fleet will put America to work for decades and will continuously wean us from the use of imported oil and then from our use of other non-renewable sources of energy. When complete our country will be in a much better position to compete against the world in the global market place.

I don't understand why people think going green or electric will cost jobs and make us weaker. OK, I know it's brainwashing by politicians and corporations but that's beside the point. The green market will probably be the next revolution. The next Internet like market, only a lot bigger.

I say let's do a Project Better Place only use pure EVs and Plug-in hybrids instead of the swap-out EVs . Then as quick-charge batteries come into the picture we can decide then to put in quick-charge stations along our Interstates. One of the requirements should be that anyone can use the network. Just like Google is trying to get owners of Wireless networks to allow anyone on their nets. Same thing. May the best Volt win. ;)

This is a good example of where the federal government needs to be involved. We need a cohesive national plan that will work as smoothly as our interstate system. No, our interstate system not perfect but it’s one of the best in the world. We don't have to be perfect, just better than our competition. Right?

You actually think building out a charging infrastructure for EVs and plug-in hybrids will bring us to a depression? If so, I could not disagree with you more. If anything it will be our way out just as the New Deal was the way out of our last depression. Building out a smart grid and electrifying our transportation fleet will put America to work for decades and will continuously wean us from the use of imported oil and then from our use of other non-renewable sources of energy. When complete our country will be in a much better position to compete against the world in the global market place.

I don't understand why people think going green or electric will cost jobs and make us weaker. OK, I know it's brainwashing by politicians and corporations but that's beside the point. The green market will probably be the next revolution. The next Internet like market, only a lot bigger.

It's already started, with active carbon exchanges.

As for the "depression" caused by going green - it's already creating jobs in some sectors. Just as the transition from buggies to horseless carriages caused some job loss while other, newer jobs were gained, or from wasteful 70s manufacturing techniques gave way to the relatively competitive 90s versions, those who cling to Amplectere Mutationem dogma may experience job loss. Remember, though, that such would be the case with or without green technology. Even if everything stayed oil and combustion, companies that don't change with the times die off in a shower of pink slips and pension fund settlement suits.

It will be interesting to see how well Project Better Place works. Let's all admit why this business model is even being considered:

UPFRONT BATTERY COSTS ARE VERY HIGH

Ah, there, I said it.

The best / only way to avert such a business model is to rapidly reduce the price / kWh for batteries.

Certainly battery cost are a huge part of makes an enterprise like Project Better Place an idea worth considering. Don't forget about specific energy too. Even when (not "if" in my and history's opinion) battery prices come down they will also need to become significantly more energy dense before swapping, quick chargin, and range extending solutions are no longer needed.

I haven't watched their video yet or read details of their plan. Does anyone know if they are incorporating V2G into their business plan. With fixed locations and significant amounts of stored energy, they could obtain a significant amount of their revenue stream from utilities for regulation services (keeping voltage and frequency stable) and provide spinning reserves (meet sudden demands for power). This seems like such an obvious, synergistic application that I'ld be amazed if it weren't part of their plan. Between this and market postion to negotiate end of useful EV life purchasing agreements, they would not have to amortize much of the battery cost to the Project Better Place swapping customers.

I'm not a big fan on swap-out battery. The problem is Project Better Place have to rely it partner to work with. The Volt or GM is not going to rely on partner that deal with infratures. The Volt or GM have work with the problem with cost by lease the battery or lease the car. The Volt added a engine to added the range. The volt added the plug-in to charge the battery that solve the Infractures problem. I know GM had said about the hydrogen fuel. I still can't see that comming cause there is few hydrogen Infractures around the US. I can't see that will work with in US.

In the long run, EV cars won't have the range problem and get cheaper. Sooner or later Project Better Place will go bankrupt.

It will be interesting to see how well Project Better Place works. Let's all admit why this business model is even being considered:

UPFRONT BATTERY COSTS ARE VERY HIGH

Ah, there, I said it.

The best / only way to avert such a business model is to rapidly reduce the price / kWh for batteries.

We're all forgetting what GM has made so perfectly clear; "A 40-mile battery pack is only 1/4th the cost of a 160-mile battery pack!" so the investment is more like $10k initially ($5k when prices come down to reflect actual production costs) instead of $40k. Voila, the high cost of batteries is no longer an issue in most cases. Why would you insist that everyone haul around so much weight and invest so much money?

To avoid having a car that only goes 40 miles you have two basic choices, you either double the 300lb battery pack (600lbs, $20k, and you still have a hard limit at 80-miles) or for $1000 you add a 100lb gen-set and a 5 gallon gas tank and you've got unlimited range. GMs onto something here!

Texas asks why I would be against Agassi's electric charging infrastructure; but that's not the problem, it's those "car-wash" style swap stations. It's like saying my wife wants to upgrade her half of the bathroom and my proposal is to give her a GFI wallplug for the hairdryer and hers is to knock out the wall and add a walk-in spa. There's no comparison! NO, Tex, the problem is $100 billion infrastrucuture to do the same thing as a $5 extension cord!! With the smaller pack you really don't need to consider 230V power either, 115 serves the purpose, so I've got 60 "infrastructures" right in my house alone! Why do we even take these proposals seriously? I think we're all too polite. Let's call a Hairbrain Scheme a HAIRBRAIN SCHEME!

Texas asks why I would be against Agassi's electric charging infrastructure; but that's not the problem, it's those "car-wash" style swap stations. It's like saying my wife wants to upgrade her half of the bathroom and my proposal is to give her a GFI wallplug for the hairdryer and hers is to knock out the wall and add a walk-in spa. There's no comparison! NO, Tex, the problem is $100 billion infrastrucuture to do the same thing as a $5 extension cord!! With the smaller pack you really don't need to consider 230V power either, 115 serves the purpose, so I've got 60 "infrastructures" right in my house alone! Why do we even take these proposals seriously? I think we're all too polite. Let's call a Hairbrain Scheme a HAIRBRAIN SCHEME!


I personally don't think swap-out stations are the best path to take here in the US. However, they may be a perfect fit for Israel or an island. However, if enough slow-charge stations (yes, they can be 115 Volts) are put in strategic areas like company parking lots, big box retail stores, airport parking garages, taxi stands (my biggest pet peeve is to see taxis running their engines all day long just to keep the AC going), apartment buildings that don't have a way for tenants to charge, etc. This will not only get more people into the game but will also double their range in many cases (like when they can plug in at work). Getting a system like Project Better Place working in the US would require a huge effort in order to reach critical mass. Project Better Place already has a budget and plan for Israel that seems reasonable. I say relax and let them get it done. Are you afraid it's a great idea and you will be forced to change your mind? Can you imagine how your reality would come crashing down if they get it working perfectly in a decade and we rub it in your face? Not that we would do that but... Remember, shotgun approach is needed - try everything so we can learn. Bickering and delaying is not going to get us there. Why not just say, "Good luck Israel, I wish you great success with your wild harebrained plan." You have to admit it’s quite a grand idea. A huge plan dreamed up by a modern day genius. To not acknowledge it seems a little petty. They are full steam ahead. fully funded, locked and loaded.

The problem with charging stations is that we'll spend billions of dollars putting them in all around the country and then in a relatively short time, say 15-20 years later, they will be obsolete. Battery/Capacitor/fuel cell/whatever energy storage system will so good that no one will us them anymore. As far as infrastructure projects go, not really a great one as an investment in the future.

If private enterprises want to install chargers in parking lots, like lets say at Wal-Marts that's fine by me, but I don't really want to see the government sink a bunch of money into something that few will use and will soon be obsolete. The true bridge to a future of pure BEVs is the Chevy Volt. If the government wants to spend money on EVs, give it to GM, Ford and Chrysler and other American auto companies as well as battery/energy storage companies to build E-Flex type vehicles. The world waits for a better battery, not just a better place to charge them.

The problem with charging stations is that we'll spend billions of dollars putting them in all around the country and then in a relatively short time, say 15-20 years later, they will be obsolete. Battery/Capacitor/fuel cell/whatever energy storage system will so good that no one will us them anymore. As far as infrastructure projects go, not really a great one as an investment in the future.

If private enterprises want to install chargers in parking lots, like lets say at Wal-Marts that's fine by me, but I don't really want to see the government sink a bunch of money into something that few will use and will soon be obsolete. The true bridge to a future of pure BEVs is the Chevy Volt. If the government wants to spend money on EVs, give it to GM, Ford and Chrysler and other American auto companies as well as battery/energy storage companies to build E-Flex type vehicles. The world waits for a better battery, not just a better place to charge them.

I think the best nearterm stategy is the one GM is following - REEV's using flex fuel ICE's that accept non-food source ethanol blends and diesel ICE's that accept bio-diesel.

The problem with charging stations is that we'll spend billions of dollars putting them in all around the country and then in a relatively short time, say 15-20 years later, they will be obsolete. Battery/Capacitor/fuel cell/whatever energy storage system will so good that no one will us them anymore.



If that happens we will all be laughing about the days when people were worried about oil prices or that OPEC held us by the short hairs. We will all be singing and laughing and enjoy quiet conversations in the city streets where the only foul smells come from foreign and exotic restaurants.

I like your dreams of the future but to do nothing in hopes that we achieve that paradise without developing what we have now into what you proclaim we will have is more than naive, It's plain dangerous to our economy and way of life. Why even talk all about this mess at all? The nuclear scientists say that we will have pure clean fusion energy in 30 years. Heck, there are more enjoyable things to do and talk about. Hey, did you hear that Mr. Cook got a 2.1 million dollar divorce settlement from Christy Brinkley? Wow!

I personally don't think swap-out stations are the best path to take here in the US. However, they may be a perfect fit for Israel or an island. However, if enough slow-charge stations (yes, they can be 115 Volts) are put in strategic areas like company parking lots, big box retail stores, airport parking garages, taxi stands (my biggest pet peeve is to see taxis running their engines all day long just to keep the AC going), apartment buildings that don't have a way for tenants to charge, etc. This will not only get more people into the game but will also double their range in many cases (like when they can plug in at work). Getting a system like Project Better Place working in the US would require a huge effort in order to reach critical mass. Project Better Place already has a budget and plan for Israel that seems reasonable. I say relax and let them get it done. Are you afraid it's a great idea and you will be forced to change your mind? Can you imagine how your reality would come crashing down if they get it working perfectly in a decade and we rub it in your face? Not that we would do that but... Remember, shotgun approach is needed - try everything so we can learn. Bickering and delaying is not going to get us there. Why not just say, "Good luck Israel, I wish you great success with your wild harebrained plan." You have to admit it’s quite a grand idea. A huge plan dreamed up by a modern day genius. To not acknowledge it seems a little petty. They are full steam ahead. fully funded, locked and loaded.

Hey Tex,
You didn't read about my wife's walk-in spa; I'm all for electric outlets! YES, electric outlets for everyone. And if the government made the power free as an incentive to EV owners (they did in CA you know) that would be even better, but an outlet with a credit card swiper would be fine too, it's only 2 cents a mile.

Also, to set the record straight, I have no problem with Project Better Place's plans in Israel, but Shai Agassi was proposing that the U.S. spend several $100 billion for a U.S. version of it. We've already lost enough money and time on Hydrogen and ethanol. In a country that's 230 by 85 miles (and if you drive outside that box you're practically a dead man) having a 120mile range car and 100 battery charge stations is a workable solution. And since they don't produce ANY oil, Zero Consumption is the right goal for Israel, but the U.S. is the world's 3rd largest petroleum producer.

Another unfortunate term in the Better Place equation is that you've got to stock those stations with spare batteries and keep them charged. Didn't we just all agree that the big problem with EVs is the initial outlay for batteries, so why is at least TWO battery packs per car a Better Idea? $80k worth of batteries per car! How long do you want the U.S. gov't subsidizing this? Sorry, the world is already full of $100,000 EV solutions, and that's exactly why no one is driving them.

For my tax dollar I'd rather see $50 billion in tax credits for PHEV-40's (same as we've put into Hydrogen technology since 2001 and what good did that do?). $50 billion would give a $10,000 credit to the first 5 MILLION buyers (Prius just built car #1,000,000, so 5 million is pretty significant).

P.S. I never realized harebrain was insulting to rabbits. Thanks.

I guess we are in agreement then about the swap-out stations not being a great fit for the US. I guess we only disagree about building plug-in charging stations (slow charge) and if Project Better Place is a harebrain idea or not. Oh, if you want to use other words please consult the following:


harebrain - Moby Thesaurus II by Grady Ward, 1.0 :

22 Moby Thesaurus words for "harebrain":
birdbrain, crackbrain, crank, cuckoo, ding-a-ling, featherbrain,
featherhead, flibbertigibbet, giddybrain, giddyhead, kook, lunatic,
nut, rattlebrain, rattlehead, rattlepate, scatterbrain,
scatterbrains, screwball, shallowbrain, shallowpate,
shatterbrain

As I said before, as long as batteries are expensive, the leasing / swapping business model is valid, so the moment the cost of batteries drops, the floor will fall out on that business model.

I like your dreams of the future but to do nothing in hopes that we achieve that paradise without developing what we have now into what you proclaim we will have is more than naive, It's plain dangerous to our economy and way of life. Why even talk all about this mess at all?

I didn't say do nothing. I said in stead of spending a bunch of money on charging stations with limited long term usefulness, we should take that same money and spend it on battery/energy storage technologies and E-REV type vehicles. Do you really think that Li-ion batteries are as good as it gets and that's all we'll have for decades? It seems as though new breakthroughs are being reported almost weekly. I really believe that much better systems are coming soon. When they do, charging stations in parking lots will be almost pointless. I would lay money that by the time we could actually get a significant number of charging stations actually built and ready to go, there will already be a new better battery battery in the pipe line making charging in the middle of the day pointless.

I didn't say do nothing. I said in stead of spending a bunch of money on charging stations with limited long term usefulness, we should take that same money and spend it on battery/energy storage technologies and E-REV type vehicles. Do you really think that Li-ion batteries are as good as it gets and that's all we'll have for decades? It seems as though new breakthroughs are being reported almost weekly. I really believe that much better systems are coming soon. When they do, charging stations in parking lots will be almost pointless. I would lay money that by the time we could actually get a significant number of charging stations actually built and ready to go, there will already be a new better battery battery in the pipe line making charging in the middle of the day pointless.


I feel the same way about the flux capacitor. It's just around the corner. You are the classic type of person that feels technology will solve all of our problems overnight. If you think they will have EEstor like storage why even bother with plug-in hybrids? You did know that charging stations will help make having plug-in hybrids more appealing to buyers, right? They can drive a range of 30 miles or so, plug in at work or at the shopping mall and be able to get back home. So you think everyone will just charge up at home and then never need a charging station? That's crazy! Not for a long time. What about long distance trips? No charging stations on the interstates? I guess I just don't understand your thinking. Can you explain your short, mid, and long term vision? I would like to see how you get from where we are today to full pure BEVs that don't require charging ports. Please include long-range driving and times when you are out and got a little low on charge (happens all the time with people forgetting to fill up their cars). Please also assume that we don't know where the price of gas is going. Could get very expensive and we could also start seeing shortages in a few years. Technology develops slowly but more quickly when in full production. Infrastructure changes take a long time as well.

As I said before, as long as batteries are expensive, the leasing / swapping business model is valid, so the moment the cost of batteries drops, the floor will fall out on that business model.

According to PBP, the price of battery will drop from $10,000 in 2010 to $2,000 in 2020. If their own projections are true, they're out of business in less than 10 years.

I'd recommend everyone to lookup Elektromotive and EDF. They've been building 120/240 Recharging Points in the Metro London area, and already have over 300 and are planning on adding another 1000 by the end of the year. It's interesting to note that EV sales in the metro london have been rising as well. I think this model is more cost effective, since it is demand driven. So if there is demand for the EV vehicles they can add more stations at a minimal cost. If you want more information let me know.

According to PBP, the price of battery will drop from $10,000 in 2010 to $2,000 in 2020. If their own projections are true, they're out of business in less than 10 years.



How did you come up with that? OK, maybe if you think that batteries will become perfect like the EEstor promise and everyone can charge up at home in 5 minutes and never need another charge again. If they go on trips they will stop by a friend’s house on the way and charge up again. Oh wait! EEstor can let you store 3000 miles worth of charge. I forgot. OK, in that world and if PBP doesn't see it coming and doesn't make any adjustments and acts stupid. Hummm, but isn't Shai Agassi amazingly smart? Yeah well... I guess I don't understand your logic.


How about this... PBP is getting in very early by setting up an electrification network. By using the swap-out idea they are able to move a few years ahead because quick-charge batteries are not ready. They will be developing, patenting, installing, operation, building a customer base, funding more technology research, adjusting to new technologies, coming up with V2G smart technology and having it working, developing electric car technology with Nissan and Renault and sharing patents and licensing properties. Then they can even move to power their own networks. Solar farms, high voltage transmission infrastructure, electrical storage systems, build out the smart grid (which will take decades), etc. Yep, I think that sounds more like what Shai is thinking. I mean let's face it, this PBP is not a small plan. One that is staying in the box. Why would any of that change? Why would Shai and the company suddenly become like a 100 year old dinosaur company that is too suck in their ways to change. I would peg them more like a Google than Chrysler. Wouldn't you? I guess you can't agree with me because it would destroy your argument but that's OK. I understand. ;)

So you think everyone will just charge up at home and then never need a charging station? That's crazy! Not for a long time. What about long distance trips? No charging stations on the interstates? I guess I just don't understand your thinking. Can you explain your short, mid, and long term vision?

I guess I don't get your thinking. What about long trips? Look at the top of this website. The little car in the corner goes as far as I want with no electric charging station. Just charging at home and never needing a charging station is exactly what I expect to do. My round trip commute is 18 miles. Short term; EREV vehicles gets people into electric cars. Mid term; with more people dependent on EVs there is more incentive to make them better just like what happened with the gasoline car. Better means longer and longer range and shorter recharge times. Long term; who knows? With technology like this there is no real way to know what's coming down the road way in the future. For all I know, we might all have little cold fusion reactors under the hood that only need a teaspoon of fuel once every year. I do know that electric storage devices will get better as time goes on. They already have and now more than ever there is incentive to do so.

Bottom line: making the Volt and cars like it cheaper and more accessible to more Americans would be a better investment for the government than thousands and thousands of charging stations.

I guess I don't get your thinking. What about long trips? Look at the top of this website. The little car in the corner goes as far as I want with no electric charging station. Just charging at home and never needing a charging station is exactly what I expect to do. My round trip commute is 18 miles. Short term; EREV vehicles gets people into electric cars. Mid term; with more people dependent on EVs there is more incentive to make them better just like what happened with the gasoline car. Better means longer and longer range and shorter recharge times. Long term; who knows? With technology like this there is no real way to know what's coming down the road way in the future. For all I know, we might all have little cold fusion reactors under the hood that only need a teaspoon of fuel once every year. I do know that electric storage devices will get better as time goes on. They already have and now more than ever there is incentive to do so.

Bottom line: making the Volt and cars like it cheaper and more accessible to more Americans would be a better investment for the government than thousands and thousands of charging stations.


Got it. You want to continue burning gasoline for the next 30 years before the flux capacitor is perfected. I guess we will just have to wait and see what happens with the price of fossil fuels or their renewable alternatives. I wonder what measures the government will take to reduce fuel burning.

I also think the hybrid car is the way to go in the short-term. Who knows, the technology might advance to the point there the fuel burning will be extremely rare. I still feel the faster we get to no fossil fuel burning the better. We still need a lot of petroleum for other products besides gasoline. BEVs are simple and burn no fuel at all. It will be interesting to see how things play out.

How did you come up with that? OK, maybe if you think that batteries will become perfect like the EEstor promise and everyone can charge up at home in 5 minutes and never need another charge again. If they go on trips they will stop by a friend’s house on the way and charge up again. Oh wait! EEstor can let you store 3000 miles worth of charge. I forgot. OK, in that world and if PBP doesn't see it coming and doesn't make any adjustments and acts stupid. Hummm, but isn't Shai Agassi amazingly smart? Yeah well... I guess I don't understand your logic.


How about this... PBP is getting in very early by setting up an electrification network. By using the swap-out idea they are able to move a few years ahead because quick-charge batteries are not ready. They will be developing, patenting, installing, operation, building a customer base, funding more technology research, adjusting to new technologies, coming up with V2G smart technology and having it working, developing electric car technology with Nissan and Renault and sharing patents and licensing properties. Then they can even move to power their own networks. Solar farms, high voltage transmission infrastructure, electrical storage systems, build out the smart grid (which will take decades), etc. Yep, I think that sounds more like what Shai is thinking. I mean let's face it, this PBP is not a small plan. One that is staying in the box. Why would any of that change? Why would Shai and the company suddenly become like a 100 year old dinosaur company that is too suck in their ways to change. I would peg them more like a Google than Chrysler. Wouldn't you? I guess you can't agree with me because it would destroy your argument but that's OK. I understand. ;)

Why should someone pay $550/month?

Why should someone pay $550/month?



If gas rises to $10 a gallon or more. Don't worry, they are not idiots. They realize that they would have to price the payment correctly or nobody would do it. Obviously. You also realize that the price of the car is included right?

You basically go to the dealer pick out what model and color you want then sign a contract. You drive away and pay a monthly payment. Just like how the mobile phone model works. Are you so sure that won't work? No money down? Yeah, you are right. American's don't like that. I guess we will just have to wait and see how Israel works out. We might just learn something from them. Well, some of us will.