View Full Version : San Francisco Solar PV to be subsidized aggressively
JoeReal 06-12-2008, 10:09 AM It is being done in San Francisco:
http://news.cnet.com/8301-11128_3-9966276-54.html?tag=cd.blog
Imagine, cost of solar installation for home going down from $30,000 to $6,000 with such a program. Perhaps Volt of GM can also ride in this bandwagon to promote awareness, and of course reduce further the cost of recharging the Volt.
Very interesting article. I hope our biotech industries here in Norcal can be nudged to participate in similar type of programs with State and Federal matching funds.
Here's the quote in the middle of the article:
"With the city incentives added to federal tax credits and state rebates, costs for a homeowner who might otherwise spend $30,000 to install solar panels would drop to near $6,000."
DaV8or 06-12-2008, 03:47 PM Yeah, it's great. Poor people and renters get to subsidize rich people and well off home owners in their quest for free power. Soon rich folks can boast how they're "off the grid" and paying next to nothing for electrictiy and mean while, the poor people will have to pay more and more to keep the lights on. Sweet deal for Gavin though.:rolleyes:
JoeReal 06-12-2008, 03:54 PM Poor people and renters get to subsidize rich people and well off home owners in their quest for free power...
I find this hard to believe. Being in the higher tiered pricing, I have been subsidizing the people in the lower tiered group. I don't claim I am rich nor poor, but certainly I am richer than other people as other people are richer than me. When it comes to electric bills, as correlation goes, the higher tier you are, the most likely well off you are compared to the lower tiers. So in effect, it is more accurate to say that the relatively well-off people are subsidizing the poor people because of the tiered pricing.
Texas 06-12-2008, 05:10 PM The poor subsidizing the rich? Give me a break! Firstly, the poor do not pay many taxes. Secondly, per capita the rich usually pay multiple amounts in taxes.
Subsidizing is a good way to get more solar on our land. This will then fund research and development into better solar. Solar that will eventually not need any subsidies. I feel this will happen in less than five years in massive volumes. In fact, this technology is already in mass production (www.nanosolar.com) but demand far outstrips supply and thus is keeping the price high. This also helps fund more production capacity. We should be doing much more of this. Much more.
With that said I think there still is a glaring problem with home solar. The biggest problem is not the cost of the system. The problem is that the entire capital cost must be paid upfront and return on investment is not guaranteed. Currently, the invested capital does not increase home equity in equal amounts. Solar is still a stepchild technology that people do not understand or appreciate fully. Therefore, a home owner that decides to install a solar system is not assured his investment will pay off. If he has to change jobs or move out for some reason he will lose out. This is silly because a solar system is a very low risk investment if it were put in a field under contract. The panels are guaranteed for 25 years! The inverters are now guaranteed for 10 years and will eventually be able to be repaired very cheaply. The overall maintenance of a grid-tie system is extremely low because there are no moving parts and the technology is very robust. It is only the transfer of property that throws a huge wrench into the financial analysis.
For solar to become ubiquitous there must be a way for homeowners to reduce their risk of investment. Many cannot come up with $20,000 in cash for something that does not give immediate benefits. These things can take a decade to pay off. It's quite boring. If the government and utilities were really serious about doing solar they would set up a system where the owner of the home can pay monthly towards eventual ownership. A plan where transfer of property also means transfer of the solar agreements. Where the utility company maintains and monitors the system. People don't want to have to deal with the solar systems. They just want clean, cost effective and reliable energy. Maybe a few of us geeks don't mind switching out inverters and panels but the average Joe will just let the system sit there unattended. Note: the geeks should still be able to own and maintain their own power generation. That's the American way. The choice should remain.
I believe there's a great business opportunity here but there must be systems put in place that reduce the risks of solar system ownership. If home owners felt they had this assurance, installing a solar system would be a no-brainer decision. Additionally, the decision to go with solar gets better every year as the technology slides down the development curve.
There must be some system out there that works on this principle. Does anyone have any information? We will need many different models so that a good system can be adopted. Inherently solar on the roof is a great idea. It generates power extremely close to the point of use and decentralizes power generation. That reduces risks.
JoeReal 06-13-2008, 12:08 AM Thanks Texas!
In my case, based on my current tiered pricing, the cost of grid-tied solar PV should be lower than $4.11/Watt before rebates or lower than $2.62/Watt after rebates. When I can find such pricing in a REAL retail market, in a heart beat, I will buy such system to be installed on my roof. If prices are higher than these, the value at retail point, which is at my house, of electricity produced by the panels, will not be able to pay for the payment premiums and finance charges and insurance. I would pay less money to the utilities without the solar PV even considering that prices of electricity will increase in the future. But if prices of installed solar PV goes below $2.62/Watt after all rebates, I will surely go solar.
With the size of roof that we have, we can produce a lot more electricity than we need on an annual basis.
The news of solar PV costing $1/watt even less than $1/watt, don't excite me anymore, it just annoys or frustrates me. I haven't seen them sold to homeowners at or below my break even price, in the entire USA. Been scouting for it... Are thosereported prices just virtual?
Texas 06-13-2008, 12:49 AM Thanks Texas!
In my case, based on my current tiered pricing, the cost of grid-tied solar PV should be lower than $4.11/Watt before rebates or lower than $2.62/Watt after rebates. When I can find such pricing in a REAL retail market, in a heart beat, I will buy such system to be installed on my roof. If prices are higher than these, the value at retail point, which is at my house, of electricity produced by the panels, will not be able to pay for the payment premiums and finance charges and insurance. I would pay less money to the utilities without the solar PV even considering that prices of electricity will increase in the future. But if prices of installed solar PV goes below $2.62/Watt after all rebates, I will surely go solar.
With the size of roof that we have, we can produce a lot more electricity than we need on an annual basis.
The news of solar PV costing $1/watt even less than $1/watt, don't excite me anymore, it just annoys or frustrates me. I haven't seen them sold to homeowners at or below my break even price, in the entire USA. Been scouting for it... Are thosereported prices just virtual?
Be patient grasshopper. The technology not only exists but is in volume production (www.nanosolar.com). Again, demand outstrips supply and you know what that means... High prices. Nanosolar is completely sold out this year and most of next. Once they perfect the line all you will need to do is add money and time. Then we can have massive amounts of solar coming out. It's no longer a matter of if but when.
To be realistic we should first concentrate all efforts to reduce our foreign oil imports. Everything else takes a back seat. Believe it or not we still use oil for electricity in America. Hawaii uses oil for 90 percent of it's energy use. We can start there or allow Hawaii to become a huge money sink as we try to keep the economy afloat when their tourism revenues dry up (due to jet fuel prices).
You have to ask yourself one question - will the cost of solar stay high for the next few years due to crazy demand or will it fall due to massive investments in capital? Well punk, do you feel lucky? My rule of thumb is that if your area has subsidies and you plan on staying in your house for more than eight years then solar starts to make very good sense. If not, I suggest waiting for things to change. I love solar and know it's coming in a huge way. I just don't know when.
One more note of caution. There are very smart people out there calling for the end of suburbia. They have valid arguments because who is going to support all of that transportation infrastructure and fuel costs? If you are out in the suburbs and have an electric car and solar panels with battery backup you might be the only person left on your block! It could be a ghost town and the road might be littered with potholes and other debris. Think Mad Max. I hope this is the very extreme condition. I don't want to see that in my lifetime. Thus, I would be very cautious about investing in housing and related infrastructure. Smart people might also be looking for ideal areas to live should all hell break loose. If Saudi Arabia and OPEC are indeed at peak oil, as some have suggested (Saudi Arabia will export less oil this year than last year - They are already behind) things could get ugly fast. So I guess I suggest you hold on to that huge solar fund until things become clear. Or you can just roll the dice and hope for the best!
JoeReal 06-13-2008, 03:06 AM Thanks... just can't wait due to impending Electric Vehicle Revolution.
As an idea perhaps, now that we know that electric vehicles are funded by Government, why not make similar program to give additional solar PV rebates for Volt or other electric vehicle buyers? It will encourage a lot more solar PV installation which will supply power during Peak demand times, and the vehicle owner will recharge during the off-peak times but now with almost free electricity due to grid connected solar PV. Many will be encouraged to buy Electric Vehicle because there's solar PV to augment their electric bills, but the solar PV should have additional subsidy if you own electric vehicle. Everybody wins in this case, including the environment.
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